The 2026 Social Security raise will be determined by inflation data released in October 2025

Social Security payments increase each year based on the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), which is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Social Security Administration announces the COLA percentage in October of each year, and the raise takes effect the following January. For 2026, the exact percentage will not be known until the inflation data for the third quarter of 2025 is released in mid-October 2025.

The COLA is calculated by comparing the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year to the same three months from the previous year. If inflation has risen during that period, beneficiaries receive a percentage increase to their monthly payment. If the CPI-W has fallen, there is no COLA — but your payment does not decrease either, because of a "no-reduction rule" that has been in place since 1975.

This means the 2026 raise depends entirely on what happens with prices between now and September 2025. Historical COLA amounts have ranged from 0 percent (in 2010, 2011, and 2016) to 8.7 percent (in 2023), so the actual 2026 figure could vary significantly depending on inflation trends over the coming months.

Key Takeaways

  • The 2026 COLA percentage will be announced in October 2025 and will take effect on January 1, 2026.
  • The raise is based on inflation measured by the CPI-W for July through September 2025, compared to the same months in 2024.
  • If inflation is lower in 2025 than it was in 2024, the COLA could be smaller than the 2023 raise of 8.7 percent or even zero.
  • Your payment cannot decrease due to the no-reduction rule, so you will receive at least your current amount even if there is no COLA.
  • The raise is automatic — you do not need to take any action to receive it.

How the COLA is calculated each year

The Social Security Administration uses a specific formula to determine the annual raise. It takes the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year and compares it to the average for those same three months in the prior year. The percentage increase between these two periods becomes the COLA for the following year.

For example, the 2025 COLA of 3.2 percent was based on comparing the average CPI-W for July through September 2024 to the average for July through September 2023. That comparison showed inflation had risen 3.2 percent year-over-year, so all beneficiaries received a 3.2 percent raise in January 2025.

The CPI-W is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and tracks price changes for food, housing, transportation, medical care, and other goods and services. It focuses specifically on urban wage earners and clerical workers, which is why it is used rather than the broader Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) that is often cited in news reports about inflation.

When you will see the 2026 raise in your payment

If you receive Social Security retirement, survivor, or disability benefits, the 2026 COLA will be added to your January 2026 payment. The exact date you receive it depends on your birth date. The Social Security Administration pays benefits on a staggered schedule: beneficiaries born on the 1st through the 10th of any month receive payment on the second Wednesday of each month, those born on the 11th through the 20th receive it on the third Wednesday, and those born on the 21st through the 31st receive it on the fourth Wednesday.

If you were born before May 1, 1997, you may receive benefits on the 3rd of each month instead, depending on when you first claimed. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, which are separate from Social Security retirement benefits, are paid on the 1st of each month.

You will not receive a separate notice about the raise. Instead, your January 2026 payment will straightforward be larger than your December 2025 payment by the COLA percentage. If you have questions about your specific payment amount, you can create an account on ssa.gov or call the Social Security Administration at 1-800-772-1213.

Historical COLA amounts and what they tell you about 2026

Looking at past COLA percentages can help you understand the range of possibilities for 2026. In 2023, beneficiaries received an 8.7 percent raise — the largest in four decades — because inflation had spiked significantly. In 2024, the COLA dropped to 3.2 percent as inflation cooled. In 2025, the COLA is 3.2 percent again, suggesting inflation remained relatively stable.

In years with low inflation, the COLA has been much smaller. From 2010 to 2012, there were three years with zero COLA because the CPI-W actually fell or remained flat. In 2022, the COLA was 8.7 percent due to high inflation that year. These swings show that the raise is not predictable — it follows inflation wherever it goes.

The 2026 raise will depend on whether inflation continues at the 2024–2025 pace, accelerates, or slows further. Economists and financial analysts often publish forecasts in the fall, but these are educated guesses, not guarantees. The actual figure will be determined by real inflation data in October 2025.

How the raise affects your taxes and other benefits

If you pay income tax on your Social Security benefits, the COLA will increase the amount of your benefits subject to tax. Whether your benefits are taxed depends on your combined income — which includes your adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest, and half of your Social Security benefits. If your combined income exceeds certain thresholds (currently $25,000 for single filers and $32,000 for married couples filing jointly), a portion of your benefits may be taxable.

The COLA can also affect other means-tested benefits you may receive. If you receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a larger Social Security payment could push your total income above the SSI resource or income limit, which could reduce or end your SSI payment. Some states have rules about how they treat the COLA in relation to state benefits or programs. If you receive SSI or state benefits, you may want to contact your local Social Security office to understand how the 2026 raise will affect your total benefits.

Medicare premiums are not directly affected by the COLA, but they are set separately each year. However, there is a "hold harmless" rule that prevents your Social Security payment from decreasing if Medicare premiums rise. This means if your COLA is small but Medicare premiums increase, your net payment (after Medicare is deducted) will not go down.

What happens if inflation is very low or negative in 2025

If inflation is very low or if prices actually fall between July and September 2024 and the same months in 2025, the COLA could be zero or very close to zero. This happened in 2010, 2011, and 2016, when deflation or near-zero inflation meant no raise for beneficiaries that year.

Even if the COLA is zero, your payment will not decrease. The no-reduction rule ensures that you receive at least the same amount you received in the prior year. This protection has been in place since 1975 and applies to all Social Security beneficiaries.

A zero COLA would mean your purchasing power stays the same in dollar terms, but if inflation does occur, your payment would not keep pace with rising prices. This is why many beneficiaries and policy experts pay close attention to inflation trends throughout the year.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the Social Security Administration announce the 2026 COLA?

The Social Security Administration will announce the 2026 COLA in October 2025. The announcement typically occurs in the second week of October, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the final CPI-W data for September 2025. You can find the announcement on the Social Security Administration's website at ssa.gov or by calling 1-800-772-1213.

Can I predict what the 2026 raise will be?

No one can predict the exact COLA before October 2025, but you can watch inflation data throughout 2025 to get a sense of the direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI-W monthly, and financial news outlets often report on inflation trends. Some economists publish COLA forecasts in the fall, but these are estimates based on current data and can change as new information becomes available.

Will the 2026 raise be as large as the 2023 raise?

It is unlikely. The 2023 COLA of 8.7 percent was driven by unusually high inflation that year. Current inflation is lower, so the 2026 COLA is expected to be smaller. However, the exact amount depends on inflation data through September 2025, which has not yet occurred.

Does the COLA explore to all Social Security beneficiaries?

Yes, the COLA applies to all Social Security retirement beneficiaries, survivors of deceased workers, and people receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). It also applies to Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients. The same percentage increase is applied to everyone, regardless of how much they receive.

What if I am still working — will I still get the 2026 raise?

Yes, the COLA applies to all beneficiaries regardless of work status. However, if you are under full retirement age and earning above the annual earnings limit, your benefits may be reduced by $1 for every $2 you earn above the limit. The COLA is applied to your benefit amount before any earnings-related reduction is calculated.